Iran's Oily Dilemma

Whenever I read a story about oil, the Middle East and the United States, I can’t help but ask the question: Is it real or imagined?

Such is the case of a recent report out of John Hopkins University suggesting that Iran is headed for an “oil industry crisis”. Now how could this be? We’re talking about one of the leading oil producers in the world and this report by Roger Stern suggests that “if oil revenues decline the country could become unstable.” So the question really should be about the effectiveness of economic sanctions in light of Iran’s desire to go nuclear.

By the way, the United Nations Security Council voted in favour of sanctions on Iran’s importing of nuclear technology on December 23rd. The Stern report suggests these sanctions and the fact that Iran has failed to meet its OPEC quotas for the past 18 months, will put Iran into an economic squeeze. Consequently, says Stern, Iran could fall into political chaos.[how convenient]

So here’s the decision we have to make regarding the real or imagined threat and Iran’s oil supplies. Does Iran truly hold the fourth largest reserves or are they exaggerating the quantity in supply? If it’s the former, then the world is truly running out of sweet crude in the region. If it’s the latter, then Iran is playing a very dangerous political game with its fellow OPEC members.[who fashion the truth] But I for one, don’t believe they are going nuclear for their own energy needs. Clearly, they are moving forward on the notion that oil supply in the entire region has peaked and they are making the first in a series of moves to become an energy supplier.

But could this report from Stern also signal a plan for the United States to justify its actions over the next year? Could they be exaggerating the Iran crisis in order to scare off foreign investment and move in? Considering the aggressive and flawed behaviour of the Bush Gang since 2000, me thinks a plot is afoot.

That’s just my opinion. I could be wrong.